Smart companies planning their inventories and marketing plans for the coming year will be wise to remember the rubric that there is nothing to fear but fear itself. Both of the major parties will be generating a fog of fear that will inevitably dampen consumer’s willingness to lash out on major household appliances and put another coin in their piggy banks.
Already we have the Opposition Finance spokesman forecasting Armageddon and calling for the end of protection of the four big banks to force them to block Stevens “normalisation” of interest rates back to just under the terrifying 5% mark in an election year. We will hear a lot more of the “great big tax” fear, the need to cut government spending and the grandkids debt burden as the Swann and Tanner machine breaks into its own back to the Howard-era fear mnemonic.
The hot tip here is to avoid thinking that Barnaby is off the planet and that like Costello before the GFC he is in Chicken Little mode. There is every reason to take seriously his concern that the US Government is going to trash the world economy, drive down the US dollar to create domestic jobs, adopt a protectionist stance in trade and potentially give up its role as the world’s reserve currency.
There are very real moves among the G20 nations that are known to Rudd and Swan but kept from the rest of us for our own good, and their electoral cycle, that may lead to the collapse of millions of small businesses that face greater prospects of a visit from the tax auditors and failure to thrive of enterprises starved of development funds. Even Goldman Sachs is issuing five-year bonds instead of bonus payments this year.
As we head for the hols and hope that the best is yet to come and the big retailers are rushing forward with their post-Chrissy and New Year sales, it is important to remember the words of the post-recession leader in another country who proclaimed that:
“This is pre-eminently the time to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Nor need we shrink from honestly facing conditions in our country today. This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself – nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyses needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and vigour has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory. I am convinced that you will again give that support to leadership in these critical days.”
– Franklin D. Roosevelt’s inaugural address.
Like Barnaby Jovce and Tony Abbott today, Franklin D. Roosevelt campaigned against the banks by saying as little as possible about what he might actually do if elected. Roosevelt campaigned against Herbert Hoover in the 1932 presidential election by saying as little as possible about what he might do if elected. Through even the closest working relationships, none of the President-elect’s most intimate associates felt they knew him well, with the exception perhaps of his wife, Eleanor. Roosevelt used his great personal charm to keep most people at a distance. In campaign speeches, he favoured a buoyant, optimistic, gently paternal tone spiced with humour, saying that:
“there must be an end to a conduct in banking and in business which too often has given to a sacred trust the likeness of callous and selfish wrongdoing. Small wonder that confidence languishes, for it thrives only on honesty, on honour, on the sacredness of obligations, on faithful protection, on unselfish performance. Our greatest primary task is to put people to work.” See here.
Ultimately, it all comes down to the level of consumer confidence of the general public and their willingness to go out and spend or climb back into the cave and wait until the fear factor has been replaced with homilies about living in the best of all possible countries.
See graph of surging confidence here.
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Dr Colin Benjamin
Entrepreneurship and Strategic Thinking Consultant
Marshall Place Associates offers a range of strategic thinking tools that open up a universe of new possibilities for individuals and organisations committed to applying the processes of innovation, creativity and entrepreneurship.
Email dr.colinbenjamin@marshallplace.com.au
Contact: CEO Dr Jane Shelton, Phone +61 3 9640 0099
James was the editor and publisher of SmartCompany and LeadingCompany for five years. He is now the Australian Financial Review‘s companies & markets editor, and a former BRW editor.
