They flew in from China, Japan, India, Indonesia, the Middle East, the US and Europe. Some of the world’s top business people, academics and commentators spent the weekend at the ADC Leadership Retreat at Hayman Island to discuss, and explain to the Australian business community, what was really happening in their regions and to learn some of the secrets behind the successes down under.
Over the next three days I will share their messages, but there is other knowledge to be gleaned at Hayman about what is happening in Australia at the moment. Normally a large number of the federal cabinet, including the Prime Minister, attend Hayman. This year no politician came because they did not know which side they were on.
The briefings at Hayman are conducted under the Chatham House Rule, so comments and identities cannot be directly shared. However, here are some of the issues that emerged.
- China looks like leading the world in clean energy and clean technology exports, but has a deep carbon problem.
- We are missing the boom on our doorstep – Indonesia.
- In the medium-term India is on track to replace China as the world’s largest steel producer.
- The US is divided over what is ahead and what they should do. Expect low growth, which will disappoint stock markets.
- The Middle East knows about conflicts. Five of the world’s top six arms importers are in the Middle East. They warn us about the dangers of a US-China split.
- I ran into many Australia-focused companies, particularly in the building supply area, that have encountered a significant slow-down in the last three to four months. It would seem that the disastrous mining tax proposal played a role in this. Retail is also down, although some retailers are doing well.
- Supporters of the NBN believe that the plan can be repackaged to meet the Abbott guidelines and enable him to make an offering to the independents.
- The fact that we have just had an election campaign in which neither side inspired us with a vision for Australia left many feeling empty and frustrated. The optimists said we will never see an election again like 2010. One or two retired politicians said that the state experience of minority governments showed that once the government was settled, parliament would run normally, although there would be many private member bills.
- Universities in Australia are facing a pincer movement. The US has lowered fees and made visas easier. Australia in its stupidity has made visas tougher. Most universities expect a fall in fee-paying overseas students raging from 20 to 40%, on a year-on-year basis. The fall in revenue will mean universities have three choices – get more government money to cover the shortfall (not likely); charge fees to Australian students; and/or arrange mergers which will see the weaker universities close and academic and administration staff retrenched in numbers not seen in Australia before.
In the next two days I will elaborate on some of these issues and detail other important issues that were raised at Hayman.
This article first appeared on Business Spectator.
