Why the battle over the new head of the IMF could pit East against West: Maley

Economic power may be shifting rapidly from the West to the East, but Europe is certainly far from willing to cede the leadership of the powerful International Monetary Fund.

With Dominique Strauss-Kahn being held without bail in New York’s Rikers Island jail on sexual assault charges, a battle royale is hotting up over who should replace him at the head of the IMF.

European politicians are adamant that the post should go to a European, in line with a tradition that dates back to 1944, under which a European heads up the IMF while an American gets the top job at the World Bank. With the sovereign debt crisis again threatening to erupt in the eurozone, they need to be able to count on the support of the IMF, which has contributed tens of billions of dollars towards the bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

But the Europeans are worried that China and other emerging nations might try to flex their muscles and have a candidate from an emerging nation appointed to the crucial position. This could prove a problem for future bailouts of eurozone countries, particularly as many emerging nations privately complain that the IMF has been overly generous to Europe in the past.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel was quick to stake Europe’s claim on Monday, according to a report in the German publication Der Spiegel. “We know that in the medium-term the emerging nations have a claim to the post of IMF chief as well as to the post of World Bank chief,” she told reporters on Monday. “But I think that in the current phase… Europe also has good candidates available.”

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu countered, telling a regular news briefing on Tuesday said that the process for selecting the next boss of the IMF should be based on “fairness, transparency and merit.”

If, as seems likely, the Europeans get their way, French finance minister Christine Lagarde is seen as the front-runner to succeed DSK at the helm of the IMF.

According to the French newspaper Le Monde, Lagarde herself isn’t commenting on the matter, but there’s reason to believe she’d be interested in the position. Lagarde regularly refers to her fascination with the United States, where she worked for a long time. She’s also very highly regarded in financial circles. Even more importantly, Lagarde seems to have Berlin’s support.

But the German press has pointed out some of the problems with Lagarde’s candidature. In the first place, her nationality could prove a handicap. Of the 11 Europeans who have run the IMF since 1946, four have been French. Indeed, the IMF has had a French boss for 26 out of the past 33 years. Even more troubling is the possibility that Lagarde has potential legal problems of her own: a French prosecutor recently threatened an investigation into a case involving the tycoon Bernard Tapie.

As a result, the German press has its own list of possible candidates, which includes Axel Weber, the former Bundesbank boss who resigned in February; Peer Steinbrück, a former German finance minister; and the Swiss Josef Ackerman, who runs Deutsche Bank.

One thing is certain. With the eurozone again facing a period of turbulence, European leaders will be loath to give up what they see as their long-standing right to run the IMF. As a result, those calling on the IMF to overhaul its selection process so that the job goes to the best qualified, regardless of nationality, appear doomed to disappointment.

This article first appeared on Business Spectator.