The number of jobs advertised in newspapers and on the internet fell 8.5% in March, adding to fears that the Australian economy is about to be hit by a surge in unemployment.
It is the eleventh consecutive monthly fall in ANZ’s job ad series, and means the number of job ads in March is now a staggering 44.6% lower than a year ago. ANZ economist Warren Hogan says it is the lowest annual growth rate in its history.
“Newspaper job ads have now fallen by 61% since peaking in November 2007,” Hogan says.
“This is approaching the 70% total peak-to-trough decline experienced over the 1990s recession, although this time the adjustment is happening at a quicker pace. In the 1990s, the 70% decline in newspaper job ads occurred over a period of 35 months while the 61% decline experienced so far this time has occurred over 16 months.”
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release official employment data for March on Thursday, and the news is expected to be grim, with economists tipping a fall in employment of 25,000 to 30,000.
ANZ is tipping a fall of 33,000, taking the unemployment rate to a new four-and-a-half-year high of 5.5%
ANZ also expects the jobless rate to exceed 8% in 2010.
Not surprisingly, the former resource boom states of Queensland and Western Australia have recorded the biggest falls in job advertising, with newspaper job ads in Queensland falling 71% from the November 2007 peak while in Western Australia ads are down 67% over the same period.
“Australia’s two-speed economy is fast disappearing, but unfortunately the convergence of state economies appears to be happening via economic weakness,” Hogan says.
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Patrick Stafford is a freelance journalist and a former deputy editor of SmartCompany.
