Abbott has set the GST hare running

Pressed about whether he was leaving open the potential for a increased GST in the second term, Abbott said “people are absolutely hyperventilating – we haven’t won a first term, let alone a second term”; but went on to add that “we will have a comprehensive debate about tax reform. Who knows what people mightr put up to us?”

Well anybody who knows anything about tax knows they will put up ideas about the GST. The debate about the need to raise or broaden it, or both, is quite strong even when both sides are ruling out doing anything at the moment.

As for federalism: Abbott has been all over the place on this at various times. Going back into his not-so-distant past, however, he is much more centralist than states’ righter. But his party has plenty of federalists – some of them are currently trying to undermine the Coalition’s formal support for the referendum, to be held with the election, to write recognition of local government into the constitution.

It will be difficult enough for Abbott to manage the normal exigencies of federal-state relations without comprehensively revisiting how the system should work, given his own views and a divided party. He says the purpose would be to “ensure that, as far as possible, the states are sovereign in their own sphere”. It’s hard to think that Abbott really wants to do this, which implies more than getting rid of the waste and duplication he mentions.

At one level, Abbott’s proposal for detailed examinations of these big areas, involving consultations with plans for change going to an election, is a faultless public policy process.

But politically it gives his struggling opponents immediate ammunition, and it could make his first term rougher than he might expect and managing the run up to the 2016 election very tricky.

Michelle Grattan AO is one of Australia’s most respected and awarded political journalists. This article first appeared on The Conversation.