One thing that is more within the control of policymakers is housing. The picture on housing construction has been mixed?—?it looked like the sector was recovering from its post-GFC lull this calendar year, until growth tapered off. But Australian Bureau of Statistics data released on Monday showed a 2.4% rise in loan approvals (for both existing and new housing) to 52,204 in July, compared to 50,983 in June. The number of loans approved for the purchase of existing homes was 43,809 in July, the highest since 2009.
There’s also solid demand for new homes, with the number of loans to finance new home construction 5265 in July. But the number of loans to buy a just-built new home was 3131 in July, the highest since March 1979. July’s rise means the number of home loans approved has risen for seven months in a row, thanks to solid demand from investors (many self-managed super funds) for existing homes or off-the-plan units or apartments.
Growth in demand for new homes is what the RBA has been aiming for as part of its goal of an economy transitioning from a mining investment boom. But demand for existing homes is more problematic. House prices are now up 10% in some markets in the past year. The last thing the economy needs is a housing boom which distorts the economy and brings higher interest rates. Already APRA has signalled concerns about the rising number of home loans where the loan-to-valuation ratio is 90% or more, and has told banks to start being tough on these high LVR loans. APRA and the RBA could very well start trying to “lean against” the surge in the prices of established houses.
The RBA believes in confidence and expectations that flow from consumers feeling more wealthy as asset prices rise, but members also know that contains the seeds of the next, unwanted crisis if left alone for too long. This could very well emerge as a flash point between the new government and the regulators. House-price booms always end in tears in Australia.
Revenue-pressed states want the boom (for higher stamp duty revenues) and News Corp Australia and Fairfax media want the house price boom to continue because their online real estate businesses are the only area of growth for their troubled empires?—?that’s why newspapers have been talking up house price movements, auction results and other fluff for the past six months. As the ABS data shows, there’s a recovery underway, but it is not doing as much to stimulate demand for new house construction as it is for existing homes and apartments.
If anything this home-price?—?rather than new-home?—?boom may become the most pressing problem for the economy, rather than the value of the dollar.
This article first appeared on Crikey.
Bernard Keane is Crikey’s political editor. Before that he was Crikey’s Canberra press gallery correspondent, covering politics, national security and economics.
