So the key to Olympic gold, according to Goldman Sachs, is to be a rich, developed country which is hosting the Olympics. The model may seem more reasonable than the one proposed by ANZ, but it’s actually been pretty lousy at predicting these Olympics. They thought Australia would come 5th with 15 gold medals.
But we shouldn’t be too hard on the vampire squad. PwC’s predictions aren’t likely to hit the mark, either. The accountants’ model suggests Australia should get 42 medals overall.
It’s similar to that used by Goldman Sachs, but PwC also adjusts for population, and, curiously, whether or not the country is a member of the former Soviet bloc.
“Many countries from the former Soviet bloc continued to outperform relative to the size of their economies at the Beijing Olympics, despite it being held nearly two decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall,” they write.
The reason, they figure, is largely just do to with good-old central planning. “We can… see a similar effect at work in China more recently, where state support contributed greatly to their Olympic success in Beijing: sport it seems is one area where a planned economy can succeed!”
Myriam Robin is a reporter for SmartCompany and its sister site LeadingCompany. She has degrees in economics, international studies and journalism. She likes writing about businesses taking risks and doing new things.
