Much ado about nothing: At end of day, Gillard remains PM

4.46pm: Julia Gillard remains PM. No one challenged her. ALP spokesman Chris Hayes MP has emerged from the caucus meeting to formally announce that there was only one nomination each for the role of prime minister and deputy prime minister; Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan respectively, “Both were duly elected unopposed and unanimously by the parliamentary caucus,” Hayes said. ”It puts beyond doubt the issue of leadership in the parliamentary Labor party.”

4.32pm: Julia Gillard has just marched into the caucus room, flanked by a group of about 20 Labor MPs. It was certainly a show of support. She appeared confident and so did her guard, which included Wayne Swan, Kate Ellis, Stephen Conroy, Yvette D’Ath and Brendan O’Connor. “Hello, how are you,” Gillard said to the waiting media.

4.28pm: Influential ALP frontbencher Anthony Albanese has supported Rudd’s decision not to challenge for the leadership. “I believe Kevin Rudd has made the right decision in the party’s interest,” he told reporters. Albanese said he stood by his approach to never support a spill against a sitting Labor Prime Minister. Gillard will remain PM, he said.

What a situation! Has Crean gone off half-c-cked? Will anyone challenge at the caucus meeting, starting any second?

4.21pm: Kevin Rudd has just faced the media to announce he will not stand in the leadership ballot. Flanked by supportive colleagues in the corridor of Parliament House, Rudd said he had previously pledged he would only stand if the overwhelming majority of the party requested his return and the top position was vacant, circumstances, he said, which had not been met.

Rudd said he would adhere absolutely to his commitment; “I take my word seriously”. He called on the party to unite to ensure Tony Abbott did not walk into the Lodge.

4.16pm: Labor MPs are expected to start filing into the leadership spill any minute. Meanwhile, spare a thought for the people affected by the forced adoption of children in the 20th century. They received a heartfelt and long-awaited apology from Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott this morning, but that’s been eclipsed by the #spill.

3.40pm: We still don’t even know if Rudd will nominate for leader at the spill at 4.30pm. This update from ABC reporter Latika Bourke:

SkyNews reckons the following Labor MPs have been spied in Rudd’s office: Ed Husic, Tony Zappia, Richard Marles, Stephen Jones. Confusion reigns in Parliament House. Normally MPs would be getting ready to head to the airport and leave Canberra as the sitting week wraps up. Not this time. They’re frantically phoning around and changing their flights.

3.25pm: Sportsbet has Rudd the frontrunner at $1.30 with Gillard at $3.00. But she’s fighting back?—?she was at $6.00 half an hour ago. And she just now dropped to $2.80.

And she’s got this vote sewn up?—?outspoken Labor MP Steve Gibbons tweets this (Gillard’s winning the race on Twitter FYI):

3.11: Treasurer Wayne Swan weighs in. He is highly likely to go down with Gillard should she lose today's ballot.

2.56pm: Bernard Keane writes:

Question Time has come and gone, with an attempt by the opposition to suspend standing orders to move a motion of no confidence failing. The motion was supported by independents Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie but failed to achieve the necessary absolute majority of the House.

A motion of no confidence?—?Tony Abbott’s first?—?may not have been particularly interesting given Gillard remains Prime Minister and thus her agreements with Oakeshott and Windsor remain in place. Wilkie has indicated he will only vote no confidence in the case of a major scandal. The Prime Minister’s speech in response to Tony Abbott’s motion to suspend remarks contain little of her usual back-against-the-wall fire, but relied on outlining her achievements and warning that she had more left to do.

Meantime the counting game is on in earnest, with attention focusing on how many numbers Simon Crean can bring over to the Rudd camp, estimated to be no more than 35-40 MPs. The problem for Gillard is that a victory will do nothing to address Simon Crean’s defection or the persistence of a core of Rudd supporters of around a third of the caucus.

1.33pm

The Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, announced in parliamentary question time that a spill and leadership vote will be held with 4.30pm today.

Gillard’s dramatic announcement followed the Federal Arts Minister, Simon Crean, publicly calling for a spill of all leadership positions after making a direct plea to Gillard to resolve party instability.

Crean made his call public after speaking with Gillard both last night and this morning. However, it is unclear whether or not Kevin Rudd will stand against Gillard for the leadership.

Ministers are currently gathering signatures for a petition to force the spill. 

Crean is putting forward his name as deptuty leader, and says Rudd has no choice but to stand. 

Kevin Rudd has announced since that he will not contest the leadership.

Crean’s announcement was made shortly after 1pm in the lead-up to parliamentary question time at 2pm. 

Crean’s intervention comes as the climax for an extended leadership dilemma for Labor, with Rudd’s camp unable to muster the numbers to defeat Gillard despite a dreadful start to the year in the polls.

However, there are important process issues to be addressed. Crean had indicated he didn’t expect the Prime Minister to accept his plea to spill leadership positions, in which case it will be up to her opponents to muster the 35 votes to successfully call a spill in caucus via the caucus chairman before MPs leave tonight (prospects of Parliament sitting tomorrow have evaporated with the withdrawal of the media reform bills).

Crean, who has been a strong supporter of the Prime Minister, said he wanted a circuitbreaker for the continuing destabilisation and that Labor’s problems would not be solved by simply swapping leaders. Labor needed to demonstrate it believed in something, he said.

The move by the former leader (and persistent critic of Rudd) breaks the impasse Labor found itself in with the Rudd camp unable to muster anywhere near sufficient numbers to defeat Gillard and Rudd himself repeatedly, in private and in public, saying he would not challenge under any circumstances. With a leadership spill initiated by Crean, Rudd now has the chance to stand; indeed, there is no way Rudd can avoid standing.

Crean also portrayed himself as a deputy capable of ensuring Rudd, whose wretched management style was one of the key reasons for his downfall in June 2010, would be a more inclusive leader if he takes over again as prime minister. That has been a persistent problem for Rudd backers, with the memory of Rudd’s behaviour as leader still strong in many backbench minds, as well as being a reason why a number of cabinet ministers indicated either publicly or privately they could not work with him again.

Crean also ruled out seeking the treasurership, which has long been rumoured to be promised to the New South Wales Right’s Chris Bowen, who backed Rudd last February and is his highest-profile ministerial backer.

There are disputed media reports that the NSW Right will back Rudd, which combined with Crean’s support would make Rudd very difficult to stop in a leadership contest. Crean has said he wishes to retain his ministerial position pending the outcome of the current contest.

This story is adapted from our sister site, Crikey.