In the end, it was hardly a surprise. Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor supported Labor and allowed Julia Gillard to hang onto government, while Bob Katter split and backed the Coalition in what looks like something of an empty gesture.
Throughout the tense minority government negotiations, Windsor and Oakeshott never really looked likely to support the Coalition – in fact, it was nearly impossible to believe that either of them were ever former National Party members.
They backed the National Broadband Network, backed the mining tax and broadly supported Labor’s climate change push.
There did not seem to be one specific Coalition policy the pair supported, although Oakeshott does agree with the Coalition about the need for wider tax reform.
In fact, the only thing they really managed to agree with Abbott and Co over was a set of parliamentary reforms that should make the House function better.
What the pair made clear today was that they have voted for stability.
By backing a Labor minority government – and one that has the support of the Greens in at least the lower house and more than likely the upper house – they feel they picked the party that can fight to keep the parliament functioning for three years.
In fact, in an extraordinary admission that might not go down well over the coming days, Windsor says a key part of his thinking in backing Labor was that the Coalition was more likely to win if another election was called shortly. In other words Labor wouldn’t dare go back to a poll it would lose, so it will keep the minority government together for longer.
Whatever the reasoning, the independents have got some big wins for their regional constituents in return for their support, including:
These measures should actually prove to be pretty positive for SMEs, particularly the commitment to broadband and the enlarged debate on tax reform.
But there is one big question – can this minority government actually work?
We are going to see some pretty extraordinary scenes in the next few months and years. Every piece of legislation will have to be approved by four very different independents, and the Greens.
That could promote thorough examination and consensus on every bill, but it will also mean that it takes a long time to get anything through the Parliament.
In addition, the independents have essentially reserved their right to dissolve the government whenever they see fit. How they use this huge power (or even just the threat of it) will be extremely interesting to watch.
The drama has just begun.
James was the editor and publisher of SmartCompany and LeadingCompany for five years. He is now the Australian Financial Review‘s companies & markets editor, and a former BRW editor.
