Business confidence and conditions improved marginally in March, but remain at recessionary levels, according to the National Australia Bank’s monthly business survey.
Business conditions rose three points to an overall reading of -17 index points, but remain at levels not seen since June 1992. But business confidence jumped nine points to -13 points, recording near double-digit gains for the second month in a row.
The mining, manufacturing, retail and finance sectors were all more optimistic. But NAB chief economist Alan Oster has sounded a note of caution, and says that while an element of fear appears to be fading, actual business conditions are still trending down.
And while trading, profitability and forward orders all rose slightly off recent lows, the jobs index – which dropped another two points to -29 points – is a big worry.
“The really concerning aspect of the survey is the continuing rapid falls in employment, now at levels not seen since September 1991,” Oster says.
“The message from the survey is that a significant deterioration in employment is underway and will continue to show up in the official numbers – with dire consequences for unemployment.”
Encouragingly, NAB’s survey also found a slight fall in the number of firms experiencing difficulty obtaining credit.
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James was the editor and publisher of SmartCompany and LeadingCompany for five years. He is now the Australian Financial Review‘s companies & markets editor, and a former BRW editor.
