Overall, figures from the 2006 census show around 5.976 million Australians currently don’t classify themselves as religious, or don’t state their religion, compared to 13.881 million who do cite some kind of faith. In 2020, IBISWorld expects the number of non-religious will rise to 7.965 million, while the ranks of the faithful will swell to 15.741 million.
Catholicism is the most popular religion in Australia, boasting 5.087 million followers, a number which will rise to 5.611 million by 2020. In 11 years’ time 3.8 million Australians will call themselves Anglican, compared to the current 3.7 million, while the number of Baptists, Jehovah’s Witnesses, Churches of Christ, Presbyterian, Lutheran and Salvation Army members will all fall. The Uniting Church will experience a sharp drop in numbers from 1.135 million in 2006 to 979,558 in 2020, while the ranks of the Pentecostal congregations will swell from 231,111 to 401,656.
In 2009, approximately 94.3% of 15 years olds are full-time students in school, for 17 year olds this rate drops to 63.1%. In 2020 these rates are forecasted to rise to 96.1% (for 15 year olds) and 68.2% (17 year olds), as State Governments increase the minimum mandatory school leaving age, and as an increasingly competitive and highly-skilled labour force make high school completion essential for the vast majority of young people.
Changing demographics will have an impact on demand for education over the next decade with the number of children aged between three and 11 set to grow by 1.2% a year between now and 2020, compared with 0.2% annualised growth over the previous 10 years. The result will be higher demand for primary school places. IBISWorld expects we’ll also see an expansion of teaching during the early childhood years (pre-school) as part of the Federal Government’s focus on early childhood learning.
More and more of us will be studying something, thanks to growth in providers such as Open Universities Australia and Kaplan, who target working adults for further education, and as the proportion of university courses offered to postgraduates rise from 27.5% in 2009 to an estimated 35% by 2020. This is mainly on the back of a competitive labour market, more focus on career development, and people being less likely to seek a “job for life” and more inclined to change careers several times during their working lifetime.
Quite differently according to IBISWorld predictions, which hint at significant changes in the Australian retail landscape between now and 2020.
Firstly, online shopping will be given a boost by the increasing spending power of ‘Generation Y’, which, although doing it tough in the current job market, will rebound and increase their earnings over the next decade, fuelling growth in online spending – their preferred means of transacting from an early age.
We’ll see more retailing conducted via a multi-channel approach, integrating the internet and associated online technologies to a greater extent than we see today, incorporating additional service options for online buyers, such as the opportunity to return goods online and interact with customer service staff.
As for the major players, there won’t be any monumental change, with giants Wesfarmers and Woolworths, which currently control around 25% of the total retail market tipped to increase their share to 28% by 2020. Mr Bryant also predicted consolidation in the retail sector will continue right through until 2020, and beyond, as major mergers and acquisitions have enabled larger retailers to expand their market share in the face of rising cost pressures.
Robert Bryant is the general manager of business information firm IBISWorld.
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