The fledgling movement to start a “first home buyers strike” is unlikely to have any significant impact on Australian prices, real estate experts say, with investors likely to fill in any gaps should younger buyers opt out of the market in protest.
Louis Christopher, of independent property advisory and forecasting research house, SQM Research, says the campaign will “bring attention to the plight of first home buyers and affordability”, but is unlikely to have a strong impact either in the short- or long-term.
“I don’t think in itself it will bring some sort of downturn in the market,” Christopher says.
“And if there was an impact, all you’d see is bargain hunters come in and buy a property.”
His comments come as Australian Property Monitors’ weekend auction figures show a 57% clearance rate for Sydney, with 398 properties auctioned.
The Real Estate Institute of Victoria said the clearance rate was 61%, “confirming that demand and sentiment has not changed” since the last rate rise.
REIV chief Enzo Raimondo says while the clearance rate of 61% is lower than this time last year, the number of properties available in 2011 was much higher than the corresponding period (772 versus 532).
Dr Andrew Wilson, senior economist of Australian Property Monitors, says with figures in February showing lending to first home buyers near a record low, we might be seeing an “adjustment process” after demand was boosted by the Government’s first home buyers grant during the GFC.
Wilson warns while we might be seeing the signs of first home buyers abandoning the market, they might end up shooting themselves in the foot.
“If demand flattened at the bottom end, I think that’d be a signal for investors,” he says, saying investors had been sitting on the sidelines since mid-2010, putting their money into high-interest deposit accounts instead.
While Wilson doesn’t believe the first home buyers strike has any legs, he says it at least shows the “movers and shakers” that there are “significant barriers to entry”.
He also warns that a first home buyers strike might cause rents to rise, as greater demand for rental properties pushes up yields, increasing property’s attractiveness to investors.
SQM Research’s Christopher is calling on politicians to look seriously at the issue of affordability, saying on some metrics Australian property is overvalued.
He suggests tax breaks for developers and those with the power to increase supply, and says councils need to look closely at development opportunities in existing suburbs.
“It’s in the national interest that the focus toward capital allocation should be on productive purposes,” Christopher says.
“We spend a lot of more money on housing – the focus should be in investing in companies, things that create.”
Smart Company is a sister publication to The Mandarin, catering to Australia’s entrepreneurs, small and medium business owners and business managers.
