Nurses, electricians and skilled workers in the construction industry will enjoy the highest amount of employment growth during the next five years while corporate managers, food tradesmen and finance professionals are also likely to be in higher demand, according to the Government’s new jobs report.
The Australian Jobs 2011 report is based on projections from the Department of Employment and predicts that most jobs over the next five years will be found in skilled industries and comes just weeks after the Government’s multi-billion dollar push towards skills in the Federal budget.
But the report comes just one day after official data from the Bureau of Statistics shows wage growth, which has been expected to skyrocket due to the skills shortage, wasn’t substantial in March.
While this has given relief to some business owners who believe the RBA may hold off on rates, it also raises a number of questions – when are these long-expected wage hikes coming?
CommSec economist Savanth Sebastian says the process of wage increases will be a long-term change, and may even be contained to some sectors of the economy.
“The skills shortage that the Reserve Bank has highlighted is not broad based, it’s mostly centred in a few different sectors. This ensures that wage inflation across the broader economy is contained.”
“If you consider sectors such as mining and mining services, you see wages growth in those areas is significantly higher than the average wage. This gives an idea of the disparity there is, and seeing that filter through to the rest of the economy will take time.”
The figures contained in the Jobs report suggest a marked departure from the trends of the last few years. While in the five years to November 2010 employment growth for professionals and managers was 19% and 15% respectively, over the next five years growth in those fields will be much lower.
Specifically, employment growth for bookkeepers will decline 8.7%, court and legal clerk employment growth will fall 17%, financial dealers will fall 50% and managers in advertising and sales will fall 6.2%.
Employment growth for secretaries will actually decline by 50%.
Moreover, food technicians, automotive workers, engineers, drivers, store persons, business and finance professionals, and health and welfare support officers will experience slower employment growth of the next five years – below 31%.
The highest employment growth will be found in the medical care, construction, telecommunications and hospitality industries.
Electricians will see 44% employment growth, while civil engineers employment will rise by 56%. Employment for construction managers will rise by 67%.
In fact, the report points out that most of the new jobs over the next three years will be found in the health care, construction and professional services industries. Most of these new jobs will be found in skilled occupations.
Employment growth will be largest in areas such as accounting, up 16%, project administrators, up 85.7%, and ICT professionals, up 93.5%.
“The labour market varies markedly across regions with a number of areas experiencing strong employment growth and low unemployment rates,” the report states.
“Even in those regions where unemployment is relatively high, some employers experience difficulty recruiting, particularly in skilled occupations. This is largely due to a mismatch between the ‘pool of skills’ and those needed by local employers.”
Sebastian says ongoing skills shortages should eventually raise wages, but it may not be over the course of just a few months.
“I think you need to see healthy wage growth to ensure the economy continues to strengthen and active levels remain robust. Momentum needs to occur, and wages growth will follow.”
Patrick Stafford is a freelance journalist and a former deputy editor of SmartCompany.
