ANZ is predicting the Reserve Bank (RBA) will cut interest rates to 2.0%.
“Although data released since the April meeting have been quite solid, we expect that the Board will consider all the data released since the Bank last updated its forecasts in the February Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP),” ANZ’s Australia Market Focus report read.
“In our view, taking all the data together suggests that the Bank is likely to downgrade its forecast trajectory for growth.”
Source: ANZ Research
ANZ said that the RBA will primarily be influenced by the disappointing CAPEX report that was released in late February.
“The April minutes highlighted the risk that mining investment could be even lower than currently expected given lower commodity prices as well as the likelihood of lower resource export volumes, said the report.
“Post Tuesday, the question for markets will be: are there further cuts on the way?
“We expect that the RBA will maintain its easing bias to at least keep pressure on the currency.
“With the market now pricing a terminal cash rate of 1.8%, if the RBA does reduce the cash rate to 2% next Tuesday, we see potential for the market to move to price at least one full further 25bp cut.”
This article first appeared on Property Observer.
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