ANZ doubts the boom in apartment building’s share of new building activity (now above 40%) is sustainable given that detached housing makes up 75% of the existing housing stock.
“While we continue to expect a affordability-driven structural shift away from traditional landed property towards higher-density living, we believe this will be a gradual, longer-term adjustment, rather than as dramatic as suggested in recent data,” says Braddick.
ANZ forecasts real dwelling investment (seasonally adjusted) growth to have turned positive in the September quarter 2012 and for 138,000 and 146,000 dwellings to be completed in 2012-13 and 2013-14, respectively, compared with 142,000 in 2011-12.
However, the recovery will not be uniform with ANZ predicting “solid cyclical residential building recoveries for New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory, but weak activity in Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory in the near term.
This is due to a “marked de-synchronisation of home building cycles across the states” with Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Canberra bucking the national trend in recent years and having “actually significantly out-performed relative to their long-run average home building activity levels”.
Overall though, Braddick warns that the recovery will “disappoint despite the urgent need for additional housing stock”.
“The total decline in interest rates in the current cycle is small compared with earlier cyclical upturns.
“Moreover, economic uncertainty and heightened debt aversion mean the responsiveness of households and home buyers to lower interest rates is likely to be significantly lower in this cycle than before, though strong population growth means there is more pent-up demand.
“For all of the above-mentioned reasons, we suspect the current upswing in new dwelling approvals and building activity will disappoint relative to previous recoveries and existing market expectations.
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