RBA governor Glenn Stevens also conceded as such, stating that residential investment seems to be “slowly increasing (Australia wide), with higher dwelling prices and rental yields.”
Share markets have trended higher, and there’s been a marginal uplift in retail spending, all of which filters through to the property market. Confidence that we’re on the ‘up and up’ again, combined with ‘cheap credit’ simply adds fuel to the fire.
AFG is once again reporting a ‘record’ month of borrowing with their February figures up 5.3% on this time last year (albeit with ‘subdued’ first-home buyer activity). Australia’s largest mortgage broker was reporting increasing activity as far back as February 2012, fuelled by a strong investment sector (which currently makes up roughly 42% of the residential market).
As Michael Matusik pointed out a few days ago, “Australian’s borrowed $200 billion to buy residential property last year – 7% less than the market peak in 07/08.”
In Melbourne, clearance rates are up, the auction market is bubbling – and if ever there was an ‘out on the street’ example of the ‘boom and bust’ physiology in motion, it can be viewed in the inner suburban streets of Melbourne on any bumper ‘super Saturday.’
By their very nature, auction sales have played a significant part in igniting golden periods of rapid inflation in the established residential sector. Bidders evidently have their confidence underpinned when they see others competing for the same property – budgets tend to be pushed, and the under-bidder who walks away with that gut-wrenching feeling of empty disappointment is the one who’ll stretch their finances for the next auction they attend.
As buyers see prices go past expectation in an open and arguably transparent atmosphere, there is a feeling of ‘act now or miss out’ – it’s a feature of any rising market, whether stocks or property, and the build in intensity is rapid.
As an example, if two buyers are going head to head during an auction – and the winning bidder exceeds by just $1,000 – there is another buyer – the under-bidder – who has a similar budget and, with a determination not to lose twice, needs little persuasion to bid to the same level (or higher) on another property.
If you want a really good demonstration of this scenario, congregate around ‘investment-grade’ properties in the popular markets of Elwood and St Kilda (as an example). Whilst the general consensus remains that emotional home buyers push the market, they don’t shine a light to a couple of investors going ‘head-to-head’ for a negatively-geared asset, which will produce a fairly robust rental income and decent depreciation schedule to boot.
Albeit – do not mistake this for a market recovery – once again, it’s all confined to the established sector. Everyone is effectively fighting over the same pool of existing dwellings in a never ending game of ‘musical chairs.’ We’re simply paying higher prices for an ageing stock of second hand homes.
Indeed, there’ll be no housing recovery until we have a construction recovery. As the first ABS building approvals update for 2013 indicated, approvals in January fell for a second consecutive month, lingering back below the 13,000 mark.
Spokesperson for the HIA, Harley Dale, commented that even with a rise of 3.3% in detached house approval, overall approvals for this sector are still down by 1% over the three months to January 2013.
Fletcher Building LTD is also flagging the weight of the issue, stressing that the ongoing weakness in Australia’s new housing sector is likely to last until the end of the year. Along with the others, they are crying for lower rates and a return of incentives for first-home buyers.
Last week, the federal government’s housing supply council revealed the nation faces an “an impending very substantial fall in home ownership”. The report goes onto state that “baby boomers will be the last generation to live the home-ownership dream”, with the so called ‘trend’ towards renting a “natural response to higher house prices.”
A younger generation are now being told the only way they can get into the market is by either tapping into mum and dad’s equity, or living in the family home longer and perhaps getting a foot through the door as an investor, rather than an owner-occupier.
All in all, so long as the profits keep rolling in, there is no incentive whatsoever to address these concerns. The powers that be can keep their ears covered, whilst singing loudly to any forthcoming pain which may be experienced by a future generation that ‘no longer can’.
Catherine Cashmore is a market analyst with extensive experience in all aspects relating to property acquisition.
This article first appeared on Property Observer.
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