In fact, the overall distribution of how many times each barrier’s horse has gone on to win is statistically indistinguishable from a purely unbiased random draw.
But if you really are a superstitious type (and many gamblers are) you might choose to steer clear of the poor nag in barrier 18. Since the barrier stalls were first used back in 1924, unlucky number 18 hasn’t seen a single success. Mr O’Ceirin is attempting to break that luckless streak this year after Sea Moon – who was initially picked for barrier 18 – was scratched.
The often-cited barrier draw might well be a red herring, but that’s not to say that there aren’t some numbers that can help predict the victor.
The number on each horse’s saddlecloth gives a huge clue as to whether or not it’s a probable contender. In fact, the history books show that 65% of champions have worn a number between 1 and 12.
This isn’t just a statistical quirk, either. The numbers are assigned based on the handicap weights. The horse carrying the heaviest weight (often, as with this year, the favourite) has saddlecloth 1 and the horse with the lightest handicap wears 24.
In that regard numbers 1-12 are worn by the dozen horses which the Chief Handicapper has deemed the strongest on paper.
Interestingly, though, within each half of the field the trend is much weaker. Since 1877, 21 winners have worn 1-3 (an average of seven winners per number) and 64 winners have worn 4-12 (a very similar average of 7.33 winners per saddlecloth).
For horses numbered outside this top dozen, I’m afraid the history books really don’t provide happy reading. The 12 highest saddlecloths have accounted for an average of fewer than four victories each, barely half the success rate of the lower numbers.
It’s an old sporting cliché to say that records are made to be broken, but if this year’s favourite, Admire Rakti, is to take home the cup, he’ll have to overcome historically large obstacles in terms of age and weight.
Even casting your eye further down the list of favourites, many of the more fancied runners are either carrying more weight or have clocked up a few more birthdays than previous winners.
All of this adds up to a particularly unpredictable race day in 2014. Either it’s a year for historical trends to mean little or perhaps the time is ripe for a plucky outsider to steal a surprise success.
So who do I think you should hope to get in any lucky dip sweepstake this year? Well, really, that’s completely up to you.
As far as I’m concerned, provided you get some time off work (if you’re not on a public holiday in Victoria) and a good feed or drink on Tuesday afternoon, then whichever horse’s name is on your ticket, you really can’t complain.
Best of luck to you all for the big race.
Stephen Woodcock does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
