And talking of surprises, many of you would have read the commentaries I have made with Alexander Liddington-Cox on the US gas scene. Apart from discussing BHP write downs, US gas is simply not on the Australian radar.
But it was certainly on the radar at Hayman.
It looks as though the United States is planning to export some 90 million tonnes of LNG. Much of it will go to Europe but a lot of it will find its way into Australian markets in Asia. A figure of 90 million tonnes is getting close to twice Australian exports after we’ve completed our Gladstone and North West shelf expansions. While it is early days, it looks like US costs will be much lower than Australian costs.
America believes it has enough gas to foster a resurgence in gas-based manufacturing and, over time, to drive its transport vehicles starting with trucks and buses and then extending to cars to substantially reduce its dependence on Middle Eastern oil. I will talk about the US scene on Wednesday. There are also gas shocks for Australia coming from Russia.
I had the absolute privilege of yarning on video with Russian delegate, Alexey Pushkov.
It is clear the Russians are concerned with Syria, particularly as on the Syrian government side were Russian, China and Iran, while the rebels are supported by the US and Saudi. But it doesn’t look as though anyone is going to win and this is a very nasty civil war with no way out. All the major powers can take some of the blame.
But the Syrian crisis is the backdrop to Iran and there was a message from both Russian and United States delegates in Hayman that there was a clear possibility of an Iran war. If that happens then the long-term repercussions for the globe will be severe and a whole raft of new dangers will emerge.
On the brighter side, the Chinese set out a new vision for China. It is a vision we have seen before but it is important to understand that fundamental changes are being proposed.
Next week I am going to talk about democracy going wrong in the US and present a new global way of looking at how we manage carbon. It’s the reverse of what is proposed by both the government and the coalition but at last somebody is talking sense.
This article first appeared on Business Spectator.
