Quiet times are in prospect on the economic front, particularly in Australia. Domestically, the highlight is probably the release of minutes from the last Reserve Bank Board meeting on Tuesday. Meanwhile in the US, housing data and inflation figures will be the focus. Keep an eye out throughout the week for quarterly production and activity reports from Rio Tinto, Fortescue, BHP, Woodside Petroleum, and Santos.
In Australia the week kicks off on Tuesday, with the release of the Reserve Bank minutes of the board meeting held on July 3. The statement following the meeting was decidedly cautious highlighting the potential adverse risks surrounding Europe. And investors will be looking for more information on this as well as current views on inflation.
On the same day, the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) issues data on car sales. The industry estimates for June car sales have already been released, with figures showing that a record 112,555 new vehicles were sold in the month, up 17.1% on a year ago and underpinned by record sales of sports utility or four-wheel-drive vehicles. The Bureau of Statistics data will recast these estimates in seasonally adjusted and trend terms. And CommSec expects sales to rise 2-3% in seasonally adjusted terms. Clearly the improvement in car affordability is the clear driver.
On Wednesday, the ABS issues March quarter data on the building and construction industry. But the ‘top line’ figures have already been released. In addition, the Reserve Bank’s head of economic research, Alexandra Heath, will be part of a panel discussion at the Australian Economic Forum in Sydney.
On Thursday detailed labour force data for June is slated for release.
And, on Friday, data on import and export prices for the June quarter – the first indicator of the “inflation reporting season” are issued. The two key influences on trade prices are movements in oil prices and changes in the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar was down 1% in the quarter, while the oil price was down around 17%, suggesting import prices rose by around 1%. Export prices probably fell by 3%, reflecting lower coal and iron ore prices.
In the US, the week kicks off with the June data on retail sales. The slowdown in employment growth and pull back in manufacturing activity has dampened consumer spending. Economists tip a 0.2% lift in sales after a 0.2% slide in May. Excluding autos, sales are tipped to remain flat after a 0.4% fall in May. On the same day, data on business inventories are released alongside the Empire State manufacturing gauge.
On Tuesday, figures on industrial production, the NAHB housing market index, and consumer prices for June are released. Production is tipped to have rebounded in June, up 0.4% after the 0.1% fall in May.
The core measure of consumer prices is tipped to have risen by 0.2% in June with the annual rate expected to ease from 2.3% to 2.2%.
Also on the same day, the Federal Reserve Beige Book is released – a qualitative assessment on the state of the economy across Federal Reserve district banks.
It’s all about the housing sector on Wednesday, with housing starts and building permits released for June. Housing starts are expected to rise by around 5%, taking the annual rate to 745,000 in June. However, building permits are expected to have dropped by 1.2 per cent in June.
On Thursday, the usual weekly data on unemployment claims is released alongside existing home sales figures, the leading indicators publication and the influential Philadelphia Federal Reserve index. Economists tip a 2.21% increase in home sales, 0.1% fall in the leading index and slight improvement in the Philly Fed index. Overall these indicators suggest a patchy recovery.
Andrew Sadauskas is a former journalist at SmartCompany and a former editor of TechCompany.
