As Canstar’s Steve Mickenbecker recently commented during a video interview on Yahoo Finance last week, Australian’s are “paying double what they were 10 years ago to get into the (property) market”, despite wages rising “by half that.”
Although property cycles are evident in all market economies, I’ve said previously that assessing the immediate future based on our long term past will not produce the desired result for those imagining that the property market can sustain an inflationary upward curve, in line with our previous ‘golden years of growth.’
Notwithstanding, RP Data have not been slow in suggesting a range of suburbs predicted to double in value over the next ten years. Under such a suggestion, buyers could find themselves faced with a bill for close to $1Mil for a basic inner city second hand unit. No wonder RP Data caution investors to view the ‘free’ report as a ‘starting point’ – general advice only in return for an email address.
Last week the RBA expressed concerns about growth expectation in an address to the Citibank Property Conference entitled Housing and Mortgage Markets: The Long Run, the Short Run and the Uncertainty in Between.
The speech was interesting, but perhaps should have just lead with the word ‘uncertainty’ because whilst they make it quite clear the future is not going to look like the past – for which they employ the term a ‘new normal’ – it’s also clear they have little concept of how this ‘new normal’ will look.
Understandably, they note a recent recovery in dwelling prices which they advocate ‘makes sense’ given the steady decline in interest rates. This is the one reason we’re being bombarded with ‘how affordable’ the market is at present.
However, it’s a funny old world where house prices can romp past the rate of inflation and wage growth ending at historic highs, and despite the recent ‘slump’ in transactions and values, which saw a fall of some 6 per cent nationally, be back on the road to recovery, with established metro prices romping on towards their 2010 peak. Yet, at the same time, first time buyers are consistently told – it’s ‘never been more affordable to buy’ because ‘cheap credit’ is currently in abundance.
Of course, there’s no mention of what will happen to those homebuyers when rates do eventually rise – which, if not in the foreseeable future, they inevitably will.
The RBA have voiced little concern regarding our high personal debt levels (household debt to income ratio remains stubbornly at some 150 per cent) noting thus far, serviceability is well maintained.
However, the risk is ever present. High levels of debt – when followed by downturn in house prices generally result in a greater reduction of economic growth and subsequently an increase in unemployment. In other words – the debt level is fine, as long as the party continues – but are there any rumblings on the horizon?
As referred earlier, one we approached any question of a ‘bubble’ the conversation I had round the table Saturday evening was an interesting one. When the subject of lending standards arose, the general consensus of opinion reiterated was the ‘new’ prudent environment which all imagined went hand in hand with the assumption banks no longer lend ‘more’ than an individual’s income can service. Or as the RBA termed it;
“Broadly speaking, mortgage lenders decide how much to lend to a household by working out the repayment they can reasonably make, given the household’s income and other factors. For a given interest rate, this then backs out to a loan amount.”
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