The US is experiencing anaemic growth and faces a shock of its own next January, when the withdrawal of the Bush administration’s tax cuts and mandatory cuts to government spending will yank about $US7 trillion out of its economy, probably forcing it back into recession.
China’s attempt to stamp out a property-centric bubble has been successful, perhaps too successful and it is now, in a year when its leadership will change, trying to rekindle its growth rate.
Its slowdown, and the reality that Europe and the US – approaching half the world’s GDP and China’s two biggest markets – are under continuing pressure has impacted commodity prices, and the Australian dollar and placed a question mark over the uncommitted slabs of what had been a $500 million-plus pipeline of resource project investments in this economy. It hasn’t helped, of course, that the costs of developing those mining projects have been blowing out at a greater rate than almost anywhere else in the world.
The RBA noted significant variations between sectors of the Australian economy, while saying there had been modest growth in the first part of 2012. It also referred to ”job shedding” in some industries (which appears to be accelerating in the non-resource segments of the economy) and the ”precautionary” behaviour of households and businesses. (The imminent carbon tax got only a passing reference in relation to its technical impact on inflation rather than its psychological, and real, impact on households and businesses).
After last month’s rate cuts the actual lending rates for borrowers were slightly below their long-term averages but demand for credit remains low as households and businesses continue to deleverage. Despite the cut, house prices – which had been stabilising – have resumed their decline.
The litany of woe and worry and the likelihood that the banks will hang onto at least a sliver of the 25 basis points was, if anything, an argument for a 50 basis point cut.
The 25 basis points could suggest a bet each way – preserving firepower, keeping the stimulatory impact (once the banks have taken their share of the reduction) modest, seeing whether the weakening of the dollar alleviates some of the pressures on the industrial economy and awaiting anxiously the denouement of the euro zone crisis that the Greek election and Spanish banking crisis might provide.
This article first appeared on Business Spectator.
