Immigration reform is proceeding at best at glacial pace, again with a reasonably broad coalition of Republicans and some conservative or endangered Democrats insisting that the border with Mexico must first be secured by more fences and walls as well as more law enforcement.
Obama’s vision of a grand bargain to stabilise the US budget for the long run continues to fall on deaf ears, with big budget deficits projected as far as the eye can see. Except extreme fiscal hawks like Paul Ryan who want to take health care off the government balance sheet by privatising it, no one has a plan to rein in health care costs that are almost double those of most western countries. Obama was able modestly to increase taxes on millionaires in the run-up to 2012. But no one has the stomach for the much broader and bigger tax hikes the US will need as ever more baby boomers retire.
On the foreign policy front, the government shutdown has now forced Obama to cancel next week’s trip to Asia. That means no APEC, no ASEAN forum, no East Asian Summit and no progress on the Trans Pacific Partnership for free trade for America’s proclaimed “Pacific president”. At the same time, China’s assertions of sovereignty in disputed parts of the East and South China seas are unabated, despite repeated US’s warning against Chinese maritime aggression.
More generally, crises continue to draw the US back into the Middle East, even if Obama would prefer to focus his strategic gaze on Asia.
All US combat troops have left Iraq and will soon exit Afghanistan. But it is hard to see that either country is in better shape now than ten years ago.
Obama has been associated with what became the Arab Spring since at least his 2009 Cairo speech that may well have played a part in inspiring it. After the success of the no fly zone in Libya Obama supported if not led, Egypt is again unstable and volatile, possibly the result of an old style military coup with the US sitting on the sidelines.
Syria’s bloody civil war is an ongoing human disaster. Obama’s call to arms after Bashar Assad’s chemical weapons attack on his own people was met with a divided Congress, a no vote from the US’s “special relationship” partner, the UK, and a weak United Nations deal brokered by Vladimir Putin. Leadership from behind, say Obama’s critics.
Who knows if Obama’s phone call with his new seemingly moderate counterpart in Iran will lessen its nuclear ambitions. Certainly Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t think so, while Israel continues openly to defy Obama’s call to end settlement building in Palestinian territory.
Obama’s legacy will no doubt be debated for decades. An extraordinary orator who saved the US and the world from another Depression, ended George Bush’s much hated wars and enacted the biggest health care reforms in 50 years. A pretty good record, but mostly in his first term. Even Obama’s biggest boosters are not confident he will add materially to this list before he leaves the Oval Office.
All second term presidents become lame ducks at some point. But recent events at home and abroad suggest Obama’s requiem may come sooner than we could ever have imagined.
Professor Geoffrey Garrett is the Dean of the Australian School of Business at the University of New South Wales.
This article was originally published at The Conversation. Read the original article.
