Christmas 2010 could be the merriest of all

To consume but not be consumed? Now that would be the merriest Christmas.

A strong Aussie dollar, low shelf price inflation, stable job growth, sensible fuel prices, an interest rate pause, and comfort with our house values and mortgages all point to a merry Christmas trading period.

I don’t know whether Glenn Stevens reads SmartCompany. Not that I have anything bad at all to say about him or the RBA, in fact quite the opposite. In my humble opinion, he and his team at a federal and international level have done us proud over the past three years of turmoil.

However, his state-based financial and planning mates have not helped the cause. Perhaps their shortcomings have forced Mr. Stevens to pull on the rate lever once or twice too often to cool a housing inflation issue not of his making. I just don’t want him to pull that lever again anytime soon.

Anyway, Christmas to come.

Out in retail land, things are warming up nicely, not too hot, not too cold. We have seen two years of investment by our retailers and manufacturers in cleaning inventories, re-examining ranges, launching new products and services, and rolling out new POS BOS HOS systems; the inventory, data and point of sales terminals that make shopping easier for us shoppers, and the business results more transparent for the retailer.

We’ve experienced new and innovative marketing initiatives and productivity benefits through process improvements all keeping shelf prices stable at worst, lower at best. Not to be confused, a strong Aussie dollar has helped too!

Out in shopper land, we have our mortgages under control and our credit cards more disciplined than they have been for a long time; a financial near death experience does that to us. On our driveways our one million new cars bought in the last year are not too leveraged, and the fuel to run them is not taking away too much of our disposable income. Shelf prices have stayed stable in food, and dropped in almost every other category. We actually have money left in our bank accounts at the end of each month.

Productivity improvements in retailers and manufacturers, a comfortable pool of disposable income in the hands of more circumspect shoppers may just lead us all to the merriest of Christmases.

One where we consume products and services before and during the Christmas season, but aren’t consumed by credit card repayments and the threat of further interest rate rises in the New Year.

Christmas 2010 should allow us all to consume but not be consumed.

In his role as CEO of CROSSMARK, Kevin Moore looks at the world of retailing from grocery to pharmacy, bottle shops to car dealers, corner store to department stores. In this insightful blog, Kevin covers retail news, ideas, companies and emerging opportunities in Australia, NZ, the US and Europe. His international career in sales and marketing has seen him responsible for business in over 40 countries, which has earned him grey hair and a wealth of expertise in international retailers and brands. CROSSMARK Asia Pacific is Australasia’s largest provider of retail marketing services, consulting to and servicing some of Australasia’s biggest retailers and manufacturers.