Take heart

Take heart. There has been a stream of good news in the last week that should cheer up any business owner. The latest out today is that US stress tests have shown the banks are vulnerable but viable.

  Instead of trillions of dollars of losses, we are talking less that $100 billion, and that should get the banks lending to each other and thus lending again. Gradually the cost of money will fall.

Then we have yesterday’s unemployment figures, which show those out of work actually fell. Even if the figures seem unbelievable, at least there wasn’t the big jump we were expecting.

In fact parts of the media are calling the bottom. Robert Gottliebsen got so excited this morning that he found himself congratulating the central banks for the way they co-operated after the Lehman crash. And the Reserve Bank has also announced in its minutes just published that the recovery will start at the end of the year.

Then of course we have a sharemarket – an early indicator – showing hints of recovery. And the latest retail figures were a lot stronger than expected.

So why doesn’t it feel like it? Well that’s the problem. The small and medium business sector was the last sector into this recession and they could well be the last sector out.  Yes, some small businesses got hit early and others will not be affected at all. But the majority who complained as we went into this mess more than a year ago that it was all a media beat up will only now be feeling the pain while other parts of the economy stagger to their feet, looking pale and wan, but a least in recovery.

I don’t want to spoil the party. But just to add a note of caution. If you are like me and working on budgets for 2009-2010, remain cautious and don’t plan on seeing the recovery any time soon – despite what you read in the media.

What do you think? Are you seeing signs of recovery?