Despite the Google Phone only existing in a couple of photographs, the device is making headlines as the new “iPhone killer” and there’s no doubt early adopters are asking: “should I wait for this new phone?”
It’s a tough life on the bleeding edge – the life of an early technology adopter features long days breathlessly waiting for the next hyped up product with short periods of extreme disappointment when the latest uber toy fails to live up to the marketing promise.
To explain how hype works in the tech sector, the consultants at Gartner invented the Hype Cycle. The cycle explains how a typical product is released in a wave of publicity that drives it to the “peak of inflated expectations”.
Eventually the bubble pops and the widget plunges into the “trough of disillusionment” where users either abandon it or suffer the taunts of their friends and workmates.
Over time, those persistent fans find what the widget does well and it begins to crawl up the “slope of enlightenment” as the believers convince others the product really is good for something.
When enough people accept the widget as the best tool for a certain job it settles on the “plateau of productivity” where it happily sits until a better mousetrap comes along.
In reality some widgets move faster than others and not all make it over the peaks and plateaus. A look at the 2009 cycle shows some products that have taken a decade to approach the peak of inflated expectations while others have simply been abandoned by their makers or the market before they’ve completed the journey.
For business owners, most focus on the tools that have reached the plateau of acceptance. This is partly because wasting time on a new device that doesn’t do what it’s supposed to squanders an entrepreneur’s scarcest asset.
The other main reason for avoiding hyped products is they carry risk and most business owners have enough risk in their lives to satisfy even the most adventurous tech warrior.
None of that means we shouldn’t be looking at new gadgets and ideas – the world is moving fast and those who don’t adopt new technologies and concepts will be left behind. But just be a bit careful of the hype and unrealistic expectations of what the latest new thing can do for you.
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Paul Wallbank is a writer, speaker and broadcaster on technology issues. He founded national support organisation PC Rescue in 1995 and has spent over 14 years helping businesses get the most from their IT investment. His PC Rescue and IT Queries websites provide free advice to business computer users and his monthly newsletter has over 3000 subscribers.
James was the editor and publisher of SmartCompany and LeadingCompany for five years. He is now the Australian Financial Review‘s companies & markets editor, and a former BRW editor.
