The growth rate for smartphones is set to slow dramatically over the coming years, both in terms of volume and revenue, according to a forecast released this week by IDC.
The figures estimate a total of 1.288 billion smartphones will ship for the full year of 2014, with 82.3% (1.06 billion) Android smartphones, 13.8% (178 million) iPhones, 35 million Windows Phones, and 14 million others (including Firefox OS and BlackBerry).
The figures for 2014 represent a massive 26.3% increase over 2013, however, this growth rate is projected to slow dramatically over the coming years.
IDC’s figures anticipate shipments in 2018 will reach a total of 1.9 billion units in 2018, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2014 to 2018 of just 9%.
In 2018, IDC predicts 1.498 billion Android devices will ship globally, a CAGR of 9%. Apple shipments are predicted to grow at 7.8% per annum to 240 million units and Windows Phone will boom 31.4% per year to 105 million units. Other platforms will grow 20.4% per year to 30 million units.
The average outright selling price (ASP) of smartphones is expected to drop from $US297 worldwide in 2014 to $US241 in 2018, with the biggest drop in emerging markets, with ASPs in India set to crash from $US135 in 2014 to $US102 by 2018.
“While premium phones aren’t going anywhere, we are seeing increasingly better specs in more affordable smartphones. Consumers no longer have to go with a top-of-the-line handset to guarantee decent hardware quality,” IDC senior research manager Melissa Chau said.
| Shipment (M units) |
2014* |
2014* Market Share |
2018* |
2018* Market Share |
2014-2018 CAGR |
|
Android |
1,060 |
82.3% |
1,498 |
80.0% |
9.0% |
|
iOS |
178 |
13.8% |
240 |
12.8% |
7.8% |
|
Windows Phone |
35 |
2.7% |
105 |
5.6% |
31.4% |
|
Other OS |
14 |
1.1% |
30 |
1.6% |
20.4% |
|
Total |
1,288 |
100.0% |
1,873 |
100.0% |
9.8% |
|
Value (US$M) |
|||||
|
Android |
255,102 |
66.6% |
275,248 |
60.9% |
1.9% |
|
iOS |
116,540 |
30.4% |
152,626 |
33.8% |
7.0% |
|
Windows Phone |
7,782 |
2.0% |
19,033 |
4.2% |
25.1% |
|
Other OS |
3,480 |
0.9% |
4,862 |
1.1% |
8.7% |
|
Total |
382,904 |
100.0% |
451,769 |
100.0% |
4.2% |
Andrew Sadauskas is a former journalist at SmartCompany and a former editor of TechCompany.
